BIG STORM COMING

An already wet later half of September will unfortunately get wetter as a

system has developed that was not in the forecast last week and is rapidly
moving toward the west coast. This next system may not have even happened
had it not been juiced with the remnants of typhoon Pabuk from the western
Pacific. The entrainment of the tropical moisture into the jet stream flow
in the last couple of days has been dramatic ... the NWS has even said
"WHAT A DIFFERENCE 3-4 DAYS HAVE MADE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THIS WAS NOT
EXPECTED AT ALL!" They are even calling this an unprecedented "ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER" of moisture for anytime of the year, let alone September. There is
still some uncertainty in the models for locations of highest moisture and
duration of the system, but all evidence is pointing to the system coming
onshore Saturday night through Sunday from the Olympics down into Northern
California. Rainfall amounts could be extreme with NWS noting that current
model solutions show a 30 year event with rainfall totals up to 10" along
the coastal zones and some higher elevations. Inland valleys will get less,
but still more than any of us likely want, and depends on storm track and
duration. Temperatures are likely to be warmer due to the tropical
moisture, but still cool for this time of year.

Regards,
Greg

Gregory V. Jones, PhD.

Department of Environmental Studies
1250 Siskiyou Blvd
Ashland, OR 97520
Tel: 541-552-6758
Fax: 541-552-6439
email: gjones@sou.edu

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