Thursday, July 17, 2014

Pacific NW News El Nino Edition


"As far as the moose goes, she moved just right and we stopped the car. I'm guessing I was about 25 feet from her."
Kathy Meader - Associate Publisher


  We're receiving reports of a fire on the NW portion of Mt. Pisgah, moving up hill. Hikers evacuating. 

The Carlton Complex blew up Thursday night, burning into the town of Pateros, reportedly leveling dozens of homes and forcing widespread evacuations.
In addition to the devastation in Pateros, the nearby town of Brewster is now under a Level 3 evacuation, meaning residents need to leave the area immediately.
The firefighting effort was hampered by gusty winds across Okanogan County which pushed the wildfire down into Pateros. A witness at the scene told local radio station KOZI that she saw "whirlwinds of fire" around the town before she evacuated. That radio station reported there was mass destruction including the burning down of churches and many homes burned to the ground.
However Okanogan County Sheriff Frank Rogers said that wasn't the
case, that the downtown area of Pateros had actually fared pretty well but dozens of homes had burned in the fire. Deputies patrolling the area reported 40 homes lost above Alta Lake and along Highway 153 there were 10 to 15 homes lost as well. In all, approximately 80 to 90 homes in all were destroyed.
“There's our brand new Pateros sign and here's the flames coming down into town,” Pateros resident Christina David said, showing the devastation on her iPhone, shot during the evacuation.
David and her family were among the many residents who watched as the fire roared down into town Thursday night, chewing up everything in its path and leaving a wide swath of devastation.
“I ran home and packed some belongings and left my kids down at my mom's at the heart of town and by the time I made it back down to town the fire had hit the base of the hill,” she said.
David, whose home was still standing as of Friday morning, was among the nearly 70 evacuees at the Red Cross shelter at Chelan High School overnight where Red Cross volunteer Christina Eglin was overseeing the shelter.
“We're providing sheltering services and we have cots and blankets set up for those that need a place to stay overnight,” Eglin said.
The shelter had been in Pateros. When the fire roared into town they were forced to evacuate to Chelan along with Pateros residents.
“We were initially set up at the Pateros school and we saw the flames coming over the hill and we decided to temporarily relocate,” Eglin said.

Throughout the night donations of blankets, books and food among other things rolled in.
“Around here, Pateros, Brewster, whatever, it's all one big community, and we just love to help out,” Mark Elliott said.
This community says they will get through this, hoping and praying the fire will be stopped before more damage is done.
“I never thought it would happen to me,” David said. “I see all these disasters going on around us and I feel bad for everybody but I never thought it would be me. I never thought I would be in those shoes.”
The Red Cross said they are evaluating all the supplies they have Friday morning to see what they need and what donations they need. The shelter at the Chelan High School will remain in place as long as it's needed.
In addition to the Red Cross shelter in Chelan, the Pateros Lakeshore Inn is offering shelter as well. It's located at 233 Lakeshore Drive and their number is (509) 923-9555. The Inn asks evacuees to bring their own blankets, cots and sleeping bags as they can only guarantee a roof and place to sleep.
Evacuees with livestock and large animals should take them to the rodeo grounds in Chelan, while authorities are still working on a plan for sheltering small domestic animals like cats and dogs.
Rogers said that while the fire appears to moving away from Brewster without causing much property damage so far, he intends to keep the evacuation order for the town in place.
Here is the current list of Red Cross shelters that are open across Central Washington in response to the wildfires in the region:
  • Chelan High School – 215 W. Webster, Chelan. Overnight population of 80 people.
  • Cornerstone Christian Fellowship Church - 328 N. Riverside, Omak. Overnight population of 35 people. As of 8:30am, 83 people are currently at the shelter.
  • The Grange – 344 W. 2nd St., Twisp. Overnight population of 7 people.
  • First Baptist Church – 429 Evans St., Leavenworth. Overnight population of 1 person.
The shelters are available for all area residents – meals, snacks and water are provided as well as any available updated information about the fires.
As of Friday morning, the Red Cross is not accepting any in-kind donations of items or goods and are asking people not bringing goods or food to the Red Cross to the chapter or any of the shelters.
They are asking if you want to help to make a donation to American Red Cross Disaster Relief by going toredcross.org/donate or call 1-800-REDCROSS. Contributions may also be sent to your local Red Cross chapter.
People from Okanogan County who are inquiring about the status of their property can call 509-422-7206. There is also a Carlton Complex Fire Info Line: 509-996-9970.

Carlton Complex Fire Update 7/18 7/18/2014
PIO for the Carlton Complex fire reports as of 1AM the Carlton Complex Wildfire is now at 160,000 acres. It moved rapidly last night, covering 15 miles in 10 hours. Highway 20 from Twisp to Okanogan is CLOSED. SR 153 will be intermittently closed off and on all day. If you can avoid that route, please do. Basically what happened, is the fire that started in Carlton, moved towards Pateros, and the fire that began in Winthrop, moved into Brewster. Crews from Alaska, Arizona, and California are on their way to help. According to the PIO, North Central Washington is considered a national priority at this time. More information will be provided when available.

Smoky air that blew into Inland Northwest in a few hours Thursday afternoon likely will persist through at least Saturday as a 12-day heat wave gives way to moderating temperatures, but also gusty winds.
The blue-brown haze from Central Washington wildfire smoke sent air quality in Spokane from the good range Thursday morning to the unhealthy level by 4:30 p.m.
The government’s air quality index peaked at a reading of 154, just above the threshold of 150 for air pollution that is considered unhealthy for the general population.
Similar readings were reported east of Spokane in North Idaho.


My wife is suffering from post-polio syndrome. She has a giant chair but can not carry the chair around without very expensive gear. The cost i s 2300 and 350 has been donated, If you would like to help write pinpoint@bobshannon.org    PS This is NOT covered by Medicare or other federally funded group.
Jane by Bob Shannon
Picture by Jane Shannon

Whether it’s El Niño, La Niña or El Nothing, there sure has been a lot of interest in the seawater temperatures in the eastern Pacific these days. And for good reason — they can have a dramatic affect on our local weather.
As the temperatures and currents of the Pacific change, so does our Central Coast weather.

Since April 2010, we’ve either been in a La Niña or neutral condition when it comes to ocean temperatures. In other words, seawater temperatures have been near to below normal.

There is a rough correlation between seawater temperatures and seasonal rainfall. More times than not, below normal seawater temperatures produce below normal rainfall, and above normal seawater temperatures produce near or above normal rainfall.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicates that there’s a 70 percent chance of a weak to moderate El Niño onset in August, and an 80 percent chance that it will occur by November.

 Rick Price

The CPC reduced the projected strength of the El Niño because subsurface ocean temperatures near the International Date Line have gradually cooled since earlier this year. Overall, El Niño events are notoriously difficult to predict.

In my humble opinion, astrophysicist Dr. Weymann of Atascadero said it best. “Many climate scientists think the most reliable strategy is ‘WAS’ (wait and see).”

However, seawater temperatures have already increased along our coastline during the first part of July.

Temperature recorders housed in steel canisters and placed at fixed locations near Diablo Canyon power plant have recorded millions of seawater temperatures since 1976.

So far, this July is one of the warmest on record at 57.9 degrees. By the way, the average for this month is 55.5.

Kathy Meader Associate Editor
Fire in Cheney put down quickly
At the Patton Cove monitoring station, which is just south of the power plant in approximately 10 feet of water indicate that the warmest July occurred in 1983 with an average temperature of 58.8. Another relatively warm July occurred in 1998 which averaged 57.6.

It’s interesting to note, that the last two most severe El Niño events occurred in 1983 and 1998.


In both cases well above normal rainfall occurred along the Central Coast. The 1983 rain season totaled 47.4 inches, while the 1998 rain season hit 44.0 inches at Cal Poly. Historically, the seasonal precipitation averages about 22.4 inches.

But, with that being said, not all El Niños are the same.

Jan Null, a former National Weather Service lead forecaster and PG&E meteorologist, is recognized as an expert on El Niños and La Niñas and their relationship to California’s weather.

According to Null’s studies (see his web page at http://ggweather.com/enso.htm), weak and moderate El Niños give near average rainfall along the Central Coast. However, strong El Niño events can produce about 140 percent of above-normal rainfall for our area and even greater amounts in other parts of the state.

The term El Niño was first documented centuries ago by Peruvian fishermen. Since the warming often occurred during the Christmas season, Peruvians called this event “Corriente del Niño,” meaning “current of the Christ child.”

Normally, equatorial Pacific winds blow east to west. These trade winds cause upwelling along Peru’s coast, and move cold and nutrient-rich subsurface water westerly toward the International Date Line. If the trade winds falter, the upwelling ceases and warm equatorial water shifts toward the coast.


My wife is suffering from post-polio syndrome. She has a giant chair but can not carry the chair around without very expensive gear. The cost i s 2300 and 350 has been donated, If you would like to help write pinpoint@bobshannon.org    PS This is NOT covered by Medicare or other federally funded group.
Unfortunately, the lack of nutrient-rich water during an El Niño causes the fish and seabirds to migrate elsewhere, creating an adverse affect on the marine ecosystem.

In any case, San Luis Obispo County ranchers and farmers, water managers and fire fighters are all probably saying, “Welcome back, El Niño.

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